AF investing-decision-quality
Apply a research-grade decision pipeline to every investment idea — news-aware bull/bear synthesis, calibrated probability estimation, decision-process audit (separating process from outcome), Kelly-based position sizing, market-microstructure-aware execution, and concentration discipline. Grounded in seven canonical books (Thorp, Poundstone, Tetlock, Silver, Duke, Harris, Munger) loaded as `references/`. Use whenever the user asks to size a position, decide whether to buy/sell, evaluate a past trade, or stress-test conviction.
Apply a research-grade decision pipeline to every investment idea — news-aware bull/bear synthesis, calibrated probability estimation, decision-process audit…
As a process F 46/100 · Will not run — References files that are not bundled: references/02-poundstone-fortunes-formula.md, references/03-tetlock-superforecasting.md, references/04-silver-signal-and-the-noise.md
How to improve
- The text references files that are not there: add them or drop the references.
- Your own cases (evals/evals.json, 4–6 real requests with expected answers): the full check would then run those instead of a model-drafted suite.
- A spec.yaml with trigger phrases and assertions — a behaviour contract for CI; `skilltest init` writes a template.
Guard findings · 0
✓ No critical or high findings
Files scanned: 3. Evidence is masked. Grey chips explain why severity was lowered.
Against the Agent Skills spec
- warning
missing-refreference to a missing file: references/02-poundstone-fortunes-formula.md - warning
missing-refreference to a missing file: references/03-tetlock-superforecasting.md - warning
missing-refreference to a missing file: references/04-silver-signal-and-the-noise.md - warning
missing-refreference to a missing file: references/05-duke-thinking-in-bets.md - warning
missing-refreference to a missing file: references/06-harris-trading-and-exchanges.md - warning
missing-refreference to a missing file: references/07-munger-poor-charlies-almanack.md
Process rating: all ten parameters 46/100
- 0Tools and files. 6 referenced file(s) missing: references/02-poundstone-fortunes-formula.md, references/03-tetlock-superforecasting.md, references/04-silver-signal-and-the-noise.md
- 0Result and completion. Does not say what the result is
- 0Inputs and preconditions. Does not say what the process needs to start
- 30Running it twice. 4 mutating operations with no state check
- 70When it triggers. States when to use, but not when not to
- 70Failures and branches. 7 branches
- 70Execution cost. Instruction body is 4948 tokens
- 100Steps. 69 steps
- 100Consistency. Name and required fields are in place
- 100Progress reporting. Reports progress
- medium Safety rules and hard prohibitions inside a skill: they belong in the system prompt, here they protect nothing
- low 11 top-level sections: this looks like several domains in one skill
Everything here is measured from the skill text rather than judged by a model, so the numbers are checkable. A parameter weighs more when it is a more common reason for the process to stall.
Quality signals
- +5Description has no quoted example phrases that should trigger the skill
- +4Description does not say when NOT to use the skill (false activations)
- +3Output format is not stated: the model decides each time
- +1No license
- +2Single-language instructions
- +3Description length 533: enough signal without eating the budget
- +4Structure: 39 headings
- +3Step-by-step instructions: 69 items
- +4Has examples (10 code blocks)
- +4Reference files are cited in the instructions (1 of 1)
Quality base 70; lint remarks subtract, signals add up to 100. Result: 76.