BB Kalshalyst
Contrarian prediction market scanner that finds mispricings on Kalshi using Claude Sonnet analysis, Brier score calibration, and Kelly Criterion position sizing. Five-phase pipeline: fetch markets, classify, estimate contrarian probabilities, calculate edge, and alert. Tracks estimate accuracy over time so you know when to trust the signal. Part of the OpenClaw Prediction Market Trading Stack — feeds edge data to Market Morning Brief and pairs with Kalshi Command Center for execution.
As a process B 70/100 · Nearly there — weak spots: when it triggers, running it twice
How to improve
- The SKILL.md body is over 5,000 tokens: move reference detail into references/ and load it when needed.
- Your own cases (evals/evals.json, 4–6 real requests with expected answers): the full check would then run those instead of a model-drafted suite.
- A spec.yaml with trigger phrases and assertions — a behaviour contract for CI; `skilltest init` writes a template.
Guard findings · 1
✓ No critical or high findings
Medium and low: 1
-
low Dangerous commands
cmd-cron-mentionSKILL.md:473Mentions editing / listing crontab (documentation of a security skill)# Add to crontab -e:
security skill
Files scanned: 18. Evidence is masked. Grey chips explain why severity was lowered.
Against the Agent Skills spec
- warning
name-formatname should be kebab-case (lowercase letters, digits, hyphens) - warning
body-longSKILL.md body ≈ 6003 tokens (recommended < 5000); move details to references/
Process rating: all ten parameters 70/100
- 20When it triggers. No condition that starts the skill
- 30Running it twice. 10 mutating operations with no state check
- 60Tools and files. Uses tools (web, git, python) that frontmatter does not declare
- 60Result and completion. Output format stated, no completion criterion
- 70Inputs and preconditions. Inputs and preconditions are listed
- 70Execution cost. Instruction body is 6003 tokens
- 100Steps. 150 steps
- 100Failures and branches. 4 branches, has a failure section
- 100Consistency. Name and required fields are in place
- 100Progress reporting. Reports progress
- low 20 top-level sections: this looks like several domains in one skill
Everything here is measured from the skill text rather than judged by a model, so the numbers are checkable. A parameter weighs more when it is a more common reason for the process to stall.
Quality signals
- +5Description has no quoted example phrases that should trigger the skill
- +4Description does not say when NOT to use the skill (false activations)
- -39 of 10 scripts are never mentioned in SKILL.md
- +2Single-language instructions
- +3Description length 489: enough signal without eating the budget
- +4Structure: 56 headings
- +3Step-by-step instructions: 150 items
- +3Output format is stated explicitly
- +4Has examples (26 code blocks)
- +4Reference files are cited in the instructions (4 of 4)
- +1License stated
Quality base 70; lint remarks subtract, signals add up to 100. Result: 74.