SKILLEMALL.ai
GitHub ↗ RU Sign in

AD matchup-win-probability-sim

Computes P(we win at least K of N categories) for a head-to-head categorical matchup via Monte-Carlo simulation or Poisson-binomial approximation. Domain-neutral — works for any fantasy sport with H2H Categories scoring (MLB, NBA, NHL) or any zero-sum per-category competition. Use when you need matchup_win_probability, per_cat_win_probability, expected_cats_won, or variance_estimate; or when user mentions "matchup win probability", "head to head simulation", "Monte Carlo matchup", "Poisson binomial matchup", "P win 6 of 10", "category matchup simulation", or "weekly win probability".

lyndonkl/claude Agent Skills author: lyndonkl 4 files body ≈ 3 765 tokens Open the sourcegithub.com↗ analyzed 16 h ago

Computes P(we win at least K of N categories) for a head-to-head categorical matchup via Monte-Carlo simulation or Poisson-binomial approximation.

As a process D 47/100 · Unfinished process — weak spots: result and completion, when it triggers, inputs and preconditions

ProcedureResearchSoftware developmenttype and topics are labelled automatically from the skill text
Runs in: Claude / Claude Code ChatGPT / Codex Gemini CLI Cursor GitHub Copilot / VS Code Qwen Code Kimi Code CLI Z.ai (GLM) DeepSeek (Deep Code) Mistral Vibe LangChain (deepagents) OpenClaw Goose OpenCode
JSON
Technical rating
A
96/100
safety, quality, tests
Safety 60%
100
Quality 40%
89
Run on models
none yet
Process rating
D
47/100
Unfinished process
Result and completion w 14
0
Inputs and preconditions w 11
0
Progress reporting w 2
0
the three weakest of ten parameters · all ten

How to improve

    For the model run — optional
    • Your own cases (evals/evals.json, 4–6 real requests with expected answers): the full check would then run those instead of a model-drafted suite.
    • A spec.yaml with trigger phrases and assertions — a behaviour contract for CI; `skilltest init` writes a template.

    Guard findings · 0

    ✓ No critical or high findings

    Files scanned: 4. Evidence is masked. Grey chips explain why severity was lowered.

    Against the Agent Skills spec

    ✓ No remarks against the Agent Skills spec

    Process rating: all ten parameters 47/100

    • 0Result and completion. Does not say what the result is
    • 0Inputs and preconditions. Does not say what the process needs to start
    • 0Progress reporting. Says nothing while it works
    • 20When it triggers. No condition that starts the skill
    • 30Running it twice. 1 mutating operations with no state check
    • 60Tools and files. Uses tools (python) that frontmatter does not declare
    • 60Failures and branches. 2 branches
    • 85Steps. 87 steps, 1 vague phrases
    • 100Consistency. Name and required fields are in place
    • 100Execution cost. Instruction body is 3765 tokens
    • medium Safety rules and hard prohibitions inside a skill: they belong in the system prompt, here they protect nothing

    Everything here is measured from the skill text rather than judged by a model, so the numbers are checkable. A parameter weighs more when it is a more common reason for the process to stall.

    Quality signals

    • +4Description does not say when NOT to use the skill (false activations)
    • +3Output format is not stated: the model decides each time
    • +1No license
    • +2Single-language instructions
    • +5Description quotes 7 example trigger phrases
    • +3Description length 590: enough signal without eating the budget
    • +4Structure: 7 headings
    • +3Step-by-step instructions: 87 items
    • +4Has examples (2 code blocks)

    Quality base 70; lint remarks subtract, signals add up to 100. Result: 89.